The USA's Iraq invasion business and its mathematics
By Golap Munir

The Bush administration was very much confident about the need to invade Iraq, that meant for him a clear big business at the cost of Iraqi people, even though as the time passes on some reasons are looking less convincing. Though in a period of one-year invasion it is clear to the invaders and its allies that the situation is getting bad to worse in Iraq, still it is far less straightforward how much the invasion would cost for the USA. And even more questions remain about the ultimate cost of rebuilding a functioning economy and a civil society in Iraq.

According to a BBC report, so far the USA has spent more than 143 billion US dollars in military operations in Iraq as against the projected cost of 150 billion to 300 billion. While it has spent more 18.7 billion dollars for the reconstruction works in Iraq against the stated projected cost of 50 billion to 100 billion dollars. It has also piped another 40 billion to 80 billion dollars for extra security. The amount was allocated for US fiscal years 2003-05. Clearly to the advocates of war these cost do not matter anything.

The things do not end here. According to the Congressional Budget office, the war of occupation of Iraq by 130,000 US troops cost about 4 billion to 5 billion dollars a month, or 48 billion to 60 billion dollars a year. And the best informed experts are in the belief that this level of troops should be there for the next 3-5 years for a face-lifting departure from Iraq, though the Bush administration earlier planned to reduce troops level to below 100,000 this year. One can easily assume that this will certainly be a costly game for the US people, as the people will have to pay higher taxes or the government should lower it programs in the future. The issue is causing a considerable strain on the US troops deployment overseas, while the uncertain security and political situation demands more and more troops to be deployed overseas. The US administration may think to reduce the burden by adding NATO forces with the US or coalition forces, but it is quite unlikely. Instead, the USA is increasingly mobilizing the part time soldiers in the National Guard to serve in Iraq, which has its own cost of economic disruption.

Congressional Budget Office estimates that 50 billion to 60 billion dollars might be needed for reconstruction and security in Iraq over the next 3-5 years. Some Congressman have argued that Iraq's huge potential oil wealth means that the country should be able to finance redevelopment rather than relying on US. The oil experts opine that in the long run Iraq could increase its oil production from the current 2.5 million barrels per day to 6 million barrels if new oil fields are developed. This would increase government revenue from oil about 15 billion dollars to 40 billion dollars, enough for the rebuilding cost. But the problem is that it would take five to ten years to develop these fields. More over there lies no stable situation there, which is a must for any deal with any international company to develop the oil fields. In addition to these there lie also debt problems, as we all know that huge debts it incurred under Saddam Hussein. The interest payment alone esti! mated to 80 billion to 120 billion. If these debts are not cancelled, the most of the future oil revenue will end up paying them off. But the US call for canceling these debts has gone in the deaf ear from the part of Russia, French and Germany.

But what are going on about the on going Iraq rebuilding business by the USA in Iraq. There too no hope matters and the mathematics of US business is in the crossfire. Its largest rebuilding project since Marshal Plan is in the dismal situation. Bechtel, Halliburton and other American companies in Iraq have been fired on by rebels, snipped at by politicians and sabotaged by looters, which now a days being considered as the most dangerous. It was an easy job for the US air force to obliterate Baghdad's Al Mamun Telephone Exchange by 3 cruise missiles and a direct heat by a 2000-pound bomb. But to mend this Bechtel's program manager Steve Beuby now works 14 hours a day and seven days a week with fellow local and American engineers in an adverse insecure situation. If this is done well 250,000 Baghdad residents could dial phone call again. As we all know that the Marshal plan helped Europe to recover from the devastation of World War-II, but unlike Marshal plan Bachtel and o! ther American companies are working in Iraq in war like insecure zone. At least 17 foreign contractors have been killed along with dozens of Iraqis working for the US and other international companies. Very recently a game of hostaging the foreigners have started with a greater intensity. As to the latest a spokesman of the US-led coalition in Iraq has claimed that the Iraqis are holding at least 40 hostages in Iraq. A large number of civilians are working for big American companies like Halliburton, Bechtel, and Washington Group and their future fate is very much uncertain. At any time any foreign workers might be killed or kidnapped. They now work in a sealed off places by the US forces from the rest of the Iraqi cities. Bechtel's main camp covers the area equivalent to a city block. Its footpaths go between the sandbag- protected trailers. It has to maintain a number of private guards, Although Bechtel's private Guards have been able to protect its employees from the bullets ! and bombs; the company has been less successful at escaping bureaucratic sniping and in fighting. The Iraqi Electricity Ministry every now and then complains against Bechtel accusing for different failures.

In terms of both manpower and money, the scale of the private corporate presence in Iraq is huge. Roughly 2,300 construction projects will be funded by 18.4 billion dollars, and more 13 billion dollars is pouring in the form of international donors. This equals about 1300 dollars for every Iraqi man, woman and child, half the Iraqis annual income.

The 1.8 billion dollars award to Bechtel by USAID in January is the single largest contract in the agencies 43-year history. To provide logistical service like food and laundry and mail to the 140,000 American military, KBR has taken 4000 workers from the USA and elsewhere to Iraq. The plan was to take over the country for considerable long period, but the ever-growing insurgency made the Americans to think differently. The US has failed to anticipate the looting that accompanied the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime and the insurgency that followed. In the beginning the US and other contries' private companies working in Iraq never expected their working might be targets. But now in Iraq when Bechtel employees leave the safety of the green zone, they must move in convoys protected by teams of private armed guards, known as Shooters. Mumm estimate that the security adds up to about 6 per cent of Bechtel's cost. So working in Iraq for the Americans is just one of the hazards! both in economic and security terms.

It is still too early to predict whether the reconstruction business in Iraq by the USA will go as well or not. As the looting that bedevils the country's electricity grid shows, the campaign to rebuild Iraq is far from won. And the stakes are getting higher. The biggest unknown of all is how the Iraq war has affected the war on terror. And this is nothing but a subject of fierce debate at this moment.

Many of experts opine that mathematics of US's Iraq business is getting more and more complex. They say the Iraq war added the difficulties in the war on terror, which will certainly lead to a substantial economic cost for the USA and the international community too, where Iraq no doubt is the best prey of it. The future community of the world should judge Bush accordingly as well.

From: http://nation.ittefaq.com/artman/publish/article_8691.shtml